It is the same odds as the first pack clown. Why open ANY packs? Your claim that the contents of one pack impact another without consideration for some knowledge about COLLATION is really comical.
I agree that each consecutive coin toss, in a pure chance situation, is not dependant on the previous coin toss. Opening a box of ANS8 wrappers however, is not a pure chance environment. In fact, just the opposite. There is a definite planned design and/or manipulation when packaging
to the point where you can accurately predict what type of chase cards will be in the next pack you open (at least in retail boxes).
In the specific case of gold border and sketch cards, I don't have much emperical data except my own and two others that I know who opened 1 case of ANS8. In all three instances, each case produced one gold border and one sketch card. I can't claim to know how Topps inserts these items into the packs that go into the various boxes and blisters but I do believe there is some
plan at work.
I don't think any of us believe that they package all the wrappers, mix them all up then place into boxes and blisters. That would come closest to the coin toss scenario in terms of chance. It would be extemely enlightening to know the process behind the insertion of these low quantity items into the packs though.