Author Topic: Are these people NUTS???  (Read 893007 times)

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Offline bandaches

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #560 on: August 24, 2011, 08:04:35 PM »
I do know the odds are against you to pull another one so why take the chance? Just sell the other boxes and move on. I would rather play the odds.
It is the same odds as the first pack clown.  Why open ANY packs?  Your claim that the contents of one pack impact another without consideration for some knowledge about COLLATION is really comical.
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Offline BumChex

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #561 on: August 24, 2011, 08:30:26 PM »
It is the same odds as the first pack clown.  Why open ANY packs?  Your claim that the contents of one pack impact another without consideration for some knowledge about COLLATION is really comical.

OK genius, why don't you take a poll to see how many people will follow your rational compared to mine. I don't think you have much of a chance with your collation theory. People don't want to take a bad bet on these. The house is against you. Your obviously not much of a poker player are you. No one would take those odds even though there is a chance the collation could be off by Topps.

Offline sco(o)t

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #562 on: August 24, 2011, 09:33:55 PM »
It is the same odds as the first pack clown.  Why open ANY packs?  Your claim that the contents of one pack impact another without consideration for some knowledge about COLLATION is really comical.
I agree that each consecutive coin toss, in a pure chance situation, is not dependant on the previous coin toss. Opening a box of ANS8 wrappers however, is not a pure chance environment. In fact, just the opposite. There is a definite planned design and/or manipulation when packaging
to the point where you can accurately predict what type of chase cards will be in the next pack you open (at least in retail boxes).

In the specific case of gold border and sketch cards, I don't have much emperical data except my own and two others that I know who opened 1 case of ANS8. In all three instances, each case produced one gold border and one sketch card. I can't claim to know how Topps inserts these items into the packs that go into the various boxes and blisters but I do believe there is some
plan at work.

I don't think any of us believe that they package all the wrappers, mix them all up then place into boxes and blisters. That would come closest to the coin toss scenario in terms of chance. It would be extemely enlightening to know the process behind the insertion of these low quantity items into the packs though.

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Offline Dr Popper

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #563 on: August 24, 2011, 11:46:51 PM »
I agree that each consecutive coin toss, in a pure chance situation, is not dependant on the previous coin toss. Opening a box of ANS8 wrappers however, is not a pure chance environment. In fact, just the opposite. There is a definite planned design and/or manipulation when packaging
to the point where you can accurately predict what type of chase cards will be in the next pack you open (at least in retail boxes).

In the specific case of gold border and sketch cards, I don't have much emperical data except my own and two others that I know who opened 1 case of ANS8. In all three instances, each case produced one gold border and one sketch card. I can't claim to know how Topps inserts these items into the packs that go into the various boxes and blisters but I do believe there is some
plan at work.

I don't think any of us believe that they package all the wrappers, mix them all up then place into boxes and blisters. That would come closest to the coin toss scenario in terms of chance. It would be extemely enlightening to know the process behind the insertion of these low quantity items into the packs though.


I think although the collation isn't perfect it's probably a pretty high percentage.  I did pull 2 golds from the same case but I think that was an exception to the rule.  These machines that collate have become very sophisticated and accurate.
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Offline Playbug

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #564 on: August 25, 2011, 07:12:54 AM »
I think although the collation isn't perfect it's probably a pretty high percentage.  I did pull 2 golds from the same case but I think that was an exception to the rule.  These machines that collate have become very sophisticated and accurate.


So basically, what we are theorizing here is that there is a definate predictable "spot" where the machines will put the sketches/golds and we can predict this because of the newer updated technology within the machining process. I guess the only way to tell would be to litterally place each card in order as you open each pack in order, then after many, many packs or even cases, see if there is a pattern.

If this is true, and according to some "hot pack" sellers on evilbay it is, then we should tell Topps about it so that they can set up their super advanced machinery to be more random with their insertions. I just would like to see this predictability come to an end if it is true.
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Offline Dr Popper

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #565 on: August 25, 2011, 08:23:51 AM »
So basically, what we are theorizing here is that there is a definate predictable "spot" where the machines will put the sketches/golds and we can predict this because of the newer updated technology within the machining process. I guess the only way to tell would be to litterally place each card in order as you open each pack in order, then after many, many packs or even cases, see if there is a pattern.

If this is true, and according to some "hot pack" sellers on evilbay it is, then we should tell Topps about it so that they can set up their super advanced machinery to be more random with their insertions. I just would like to see this predictability come to an end if it is true.

When you are opening pack after pack in sequence the silvers are pretty much every 6th pack, so that right there is evidence that they are set to go into an insertion pattern, and it's fairly accurate.  I personally would like to see more randomization, not only because it would deter people from selling "dud" inventory, but it would make it a little more exciting opening packs. 
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Offline sco(o)t

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #566 on: August 25, 2011, 09:24:53 AM »
When you are opening pack after pack in sequence the silvers are pretty much every 6th pack, so that right there is evidence that they are set to go into an insertion pattern, and it's fairly accurate.  I personally would like to see more randomization, not only because it would deter people from selling "dud" inventory, but it would make it a little more exciting opening packs. 
For sure, when you are going through a box and know pretty much what to expect each pack is a little dull. You do know to perk up when you come to what should be a silver border pack. Unless someone has found otherwise, I think the sketches are usually in these packs.

Randomizing seems like it would be a bit of a daunting task in that people collect in different ways. Some expect the collation (odds of finding certain chase items) to hold true within a box (hobby, retail, gravity). While others would expect the collation to hold true across a case. Do you randomize within a box so you odds are consistant within each box, just the pack order randomized?

In all boxes today, there appears to be a 6 pack rotation used in terms of content. How they determine where the golds
and sketches get inserted into this rotation and at what intervals is certainly unknown to me.
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Offline Playbug

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #567 on: August 25, 2011, 10:00:31 AM »
For sure, when you are going through a box and know pretty much what to expect each pack is a little dull. You do know to perk up when you come to what should be a silver border pack. Unless someone has found otherwise, I think the sketches are usually in these packs.

Randomizing seems like it would be a bit of a daunting task in that people collect in different ways. Some expect the collation (odds of finding certain chase items) to hold true within a box (hobby, retail, gravity). While others would expect the collation to hold true across a case. Do you randomize within a box so you odds are consistant within each box, just the pack order randomized?

In all boxes today, there appears to be a 6 pack rotation used in terms of content. How they determine where the golds
and sketches get inserted into this rotation and at what intervals is certainly unknown to me.

They should randomize the packs. As long as they truly are putting in the inserts at the stated odds, then really there should be no worries. Too bad if you didn't make the odd's or if you beat the odd's - at least no one would be able to "crack the code" and make things predictable.
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Offline BumChex

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #568 on: August 25, 2011, 10:04:56 AM »
The case I got with 8 boxes were all random. I kept track of the first box and card positions but then the second box was totally different. Along with the next one and so forth. I don't think you can say every box will have a silver 6 packs down.
I did connect with a pack searcher on ebay. We exchanged a few emails and he told me how they do it. They are very good at sliding the cards and looking through the wrapper. He said you can do them pretty quickly. The thing to do is take a few packs home and practice. There are also websites for pack searchers and forums. Pack searching doesn't sound like it's going away any time soon. It's pretty sad....

Offline bandaches

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #569 on: August 25, 2011, 03:05:06 PM »
I agree that each consecutive coin toss, in a pure chance situation, is not dependant on the previous coin toss. Opening a box of ANS8 wrappers however, is not a pure chance environment. In fact, just the opposite. There is a definite planned design and/or manipulation when packaging
to the point where you can accurately predict what type of chase cards will be in the next pack you open (at least in retail boxes).

In the specific case of gold border and sketch cards, I don't have much emperical data except my own and two others that I know who opened 1 case of ANS8. In all three instances, each case produced one gold border and one sketch card. I can't claim to know how Topps inserts these items into the packs that go into the various boxes and blisters but I do believe there is some
plan at work.

I don't think any of us believe that they package all the wrappers, mix them all up then place into boxes and blisters. That would come closest to the coin toss scenario in terms of chance. It would be extemely enlightening to know the process behind the insertion of these low quantity items into the packs though.



Did you miss my first post???  BRad specifically said his assersion was purely based on ODDS, I called this out specifically stating that if he is not considering lack of random collation and that his ridiculous statement was based on odds, he is completely wrong.  I totally agree with what you are saying here, it just doesn't have anything to do with Brad's actual statement.
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Offline sco(o)t

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #570 on: August 25, 2011, 03:28:42 PM »
The case I got with 8 boxes were all random. I kept track of the first box and card positions but then the second box was totally different. Along with the next one and so forth. I don't think you can say every box will have a silver 6 packs down.
I did connect with a pack searcher on ebay. We exchanged a few emails and he told me how they do it. They are very good at sliding the cards and looking through the wrapper. He said you can do them pretty quickly. The thing to do is take a few packs home and practice. There are also websites for pack searchers and forums. Pack searching doesn't sound like it's going away any time soon. It's pretty sad....

I found that the 6 pack sequence could start at any point in the sequence with the top pack in a box, but then proceeded as expected. Furthermore, the two sides (stacks) in a box were unrelated in terms of where the sequence ended in one stack and begins in the other. You can't say the 6th pack down will have a silver. You can say that each 7th pack in a stack will contain a silver after the first one that contains a silver. In my previous posts, thats why I indicated once you know where you are in the sequence (which requires you open two consecutive packs), you know what follows.
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Offline bandaches

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #571 on: August 25, 2011, 03:34:56 PM »
Quote from: BumChex on August 24, 2011, 09:24:05 PM
Just look at the odds. It's highly unlikely.

Bandaches response:
Nonsense.  Unless it is proven that the collation is such that each case only gets one Gold, your suggesting that a previous random event impacts a future event is nonsense.  Are you the type who believes the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads immediately after flipping a coin and getting heads is less than 50/50?

For those who have completely lost track of the discussion I am having with Brad, see the above.......Brad makes no mention of his concern about predictable collation, he purely claimed that opening another pack was a bad idea due to the odds.....odds which were really no different than opening any other pack.
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Offline BumChex

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #572 on: August 25, 2011, 03:38:09 PM »
Did you miss my first post???  BRad specifically said his assersion was purely based on ODDS, I called this out specifically stating that if he is not considering lack of random collation and that his ridiculous statement was based on odds, he is completely wrong.  I totally agree with what you are saying here, it just doesn't have anything to do with Brad's actual statement.

I'm stating the odds of finding 2 sketches in a case are very slim so why play those type of odds. Scot already pointed out 3 cases that had only one gold and one sketch. Why would you think there would be another one in the same case? That is what I'm getting at. Find the gold and sketch and sell the other boxes in the case. Nothing more to it then that!

Offline bandaches

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #573 on: August 25, 2011, 03:45:29 PM »
I'm stating the odds of finding 2 sketches in a case are very slim so why play those type of odds. Scot already pointed out 3 cases that had only one gold and one sketch. Why would you think there would be another one in the same case? That is what I'm getting at. Find the gold and sketch and sell the other boxes in the case. Nothing more to it then that!
This is ONLY because of predictable collation and NOT because of odds!  Not sure why you are finding that so hard to understand.  The funny part is that if Topps found a way to truly randomize collation, you would still believe what you are saying that once you pull a gold, there is more likely a gold in a box from another case than the case you just pulled a box and that would be completely wrong.
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Offline sco(o)t

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #574 on: August 25, 2011, 03:48:02 PM »
Did you miss my first post???  BRad specifically said his assersion was purely based on ODDS, I called this out specifically stating that if he is not considering lack of random collation and that his ridiculous statement was based on odds, he is completely wrong.  I totally agree with what you are saying here, it just doesn't have anything to do with Brad's actual statement.

I think I did miss your point upon first reading.

I shouldn't put words in Brad's mouth but I read his use of the terms "odds" as being the odds of getting each chase card type that are listed on the wrappers/blister backs. I see now where you were coming from and understand the point you were making.

I thought Brad was indicating that Topps says the odds of getting a sketch card is 1 in 973 packs. A case contains 192 packs so if you are opening a case and get a sketch in the first box, there is little hope of getting another sketch in this case given we know that the boxes are not randomly packed.

I think there is some truth in this and guess this is were some unopened boxes on eBay come from. They are the unopened boxes left after someone has hit the jackpot  from a case with a sketch card and they stop opening at that point. This is why I would avoid buying boxes on eBay.
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Offline BumChex

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #575 on: August 25, 2011, 03:48:32 PM »
This is ONLY because of predictable collation and NOT because of odds!  Not sure why you are finding that so hard to understand.  The funny part is that if Topps found a way to truly randomize collation, you would still believe what you are saying that once you pull a gold, there is more likely a gold in a box from another case than the case you just pulled a box and that would be completely wrong.


I also predict the odds of this conversation continuing is NONE!

Offline BumChex

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #576 on: August 25, 2011, 03:50:38 PM »
I think I did miss your point upon first reading.

I shouldn't put words in Brad's mouth but I read his use of the terms "odds" as being the odds of getting each chase card type that are listed on the wrappers/blister backs. I see now where you were coming from and understand the point you were making.

I thought Brad was indicating that Topps says the odds of getting a sketch card is 1 in 973 packs. A case contains 192 packs so if you are opening a case and get a sketch in the first box, there is little hope of getting another sketch in this case given we know that the boxes are not randomly packed.

I think there is some truth in this and guess this is were some unopened boxes on eBay come from. They are the unopened boxes left after someone has hit the jackpot  from a case with a sketch card and they stop opening at that point. This is why I would avoid buying boxes on eBay.

That is exactly what I have been trying to say. I didn't mean actual odds. I meant the odds of you pulling 2 sketch cards out of a case are slim so sell off the other boxes. That is why I said that the guys selling boxes on ebay are also selling sketches. It's easy to put 2 and 2 together.

Offline Porkie

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #577 on: August 25, 2011, 08:50:09 PM »
I've been wishing the packs were truly randomized since ANS7. After buying several boxes from Topps and seeing the same patterns appearing over and over it is very clear there are patterns.

If dealers buy cases and pull sketches/golds I would bet the next box in that same case does not contain either. So why not sell that box for a little cheaper and look like you're giving someone a deal?

If the packs were truly random it would be much more interesting to buy packs imo.

Offline Playbug

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #578 on: August 27, 2011, 11:57:48 AM »
If the packs were truly random it would be much more interesting to buy packs imo.

This is all that I was trying to say and agree with. We need to call Mythbusters about the truth of pack collation.
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Offline bandaches

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #579 on: August 27, 2011, 12:03:38 PM »
This is all that I was trying to say and agree with. We need to call Mythbusters about the truth of pack collation.
Have any of the card distributors(Fleer, Donrus, Topps, and all of the makers of today) ever found a way to somewhat randomize their packing?  There is no such thing as true randomness but if they could switch patterns throughout their distribution, it might help.
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Offline Dr Popper

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #580 on: August 27, 2011, 12:30:03 PM »
Have any of the card distributors(Fleer, Donrus, Topps, and all of the makers of today) ever found a way to somewhat randomize their packing?  There is no such thing as true randomness but if they could switch patterns throughout their distribution, it might help.

I think the new insertion equipment the production plants Topps uses use these days are all run by computer programming, so they should be able to mix and match the collation to any rate they want, and they would be able to alter the ratio on the fly too.
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Offline bandaches

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #581 on: August 27, 2011, 12:52:19 PM »
I think the new insertion equipment the production plants Topps uses use these days are all run by computer programming, so they should be able to mix and match the collation to any rate they want, and they would be able to alter the ratio on the fly too.
I wonder if that would hurt sales as it seems the major dealers are pack searchers and if that ability was taken from them, they would buy less but collectors would probably buy more.  Who are the biggest buyers?
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Offline Playbug

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #582 on: August 28, 2011, 08:02:30 AM »
I wonder if that would hurt sales as it seems the major dealers are pack searchers and if that ability was taken from them, they would buy less but collectors would probably buy more.  Who are the biggest buyers?

Good question. In the long run it think it would all work out and no one would feel that there is any unfairness going on. As it stands now, you might have the "code crackers" buying more just for that reason - if they didn't crack it, they would buy less - but everyone else would probably buy more knowing that their odds are better. I think it would even out in the long run.
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Offline lucidjc

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Offline Dr Popper

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Offline Fanatical_and_Sickly

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #585 on: August 28, 2011, 06:48:23 PM »
That better be a mistake! 
but it's true - no where else will you find such a deal!!!!
and for very good reason, too

Offline Playbug

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #586 on: August 28, 2011, 09:31:14 PM »
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World

Offline lucidjc

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #587 on: August 28, 2011, 09:50:19 PM »
I can't believe for that price I have to tilt my head to see it.


I think she keeps forgetting to either turn the camera or the cards, or she keeps turning both and is still wondering why she keeps going around the world to the left.

Offline Liquidfox

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #588 on: August 29, 2011, 05:34:29 PM »
I just wonder who needs $20 minus postage that bad (if you sell them all).  Guess you gotta recoup somehow.

Offline lucidjc

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #589 on: September 04, 2011, 05:35:59 PM »
Here she goes again, i guess she needs 4 different snot variations. Think she'd leave a used tissue for the beggers?


http://www.ebay.com/itm/Wacky-Packages-ANS-8-SKETCH-CARD-Joe-Simko-/380366271120?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item588f98b290

Offline BumChex

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #590 on: September 04, 2011, 08:40:44 PM »
Here she goes again, i guess she needs 4 different snot variations. Think she'd leave a used tissue for the beggers?


http://www.ebay.com/itm/Wacky-Packages-ANS-8-SKETCH-CARD-Joe-Simko-/380366271120?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item588f98b290
Confused....$50 is cheap for a sketch. If I had known it would sell this cheap I would have bid on it. You have no idea if she only put a $50 bid on this or not.

Offline bandaches

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #591 on: September 04, 2011, 10:08:30 PM »
Anyone here deal with a guy named Frank from NY(Ebay id Ditkorules)?  He asked me to meet him at the Wayne Firehouse show today to buy some display boxes.  Says he was going to get there around noon but for some reason, he supposedly shifted his schedule and was there from 11 to 12:15. I got there just before noon and never saw him and I hung out til 1:00.  There were no more than 5 people other than dealers at this completely dead show. 

Seems pretty disingenuous to leave by 12:15 and claiming he didn't see me as I had my wacky pack guide with me making me easy to spot.  This show is very small, a single room of maybe 25 dealer tables.  I had no way to identify him as he offered me no way to spot him.

I think he is full of crap and never showed up as he now doesn't want to buy the boxes.  I think he just changed his mind and blew me off so I wanted to see if others have dealt with him.
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Offline lucidjc

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #592 on: September 04, 2011, 11:01:13 PM »
How can this guy sell these so cheap? Free shipping? and i bet he still turns a profit. This is how Gary can open so much. They must be getting one hell of a deal from TOPPS. This and having to put up with pack/box searchers really pisses one off!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2011-Topps-Wacky-Packages-Series-8-Sealed-24-Pack-Box-/350489880505?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item519ad327b9
« Last Edit: September 04, 2011, 11:05:07 PM by BumChex »

Offline BumChex

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #593 on: September 04, 2011, 11:05:43 PM »
How can this guy sell these so cheap? Free shipping? and i bet he still turns a profit. This is how Gary can open so much. They must be getting one hell of a deal from TOPPS. This and having to put up with pack/box searchers really pisses one off!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2011-Topps-Wacky-Packages-Series-8-Sealed-24-Pack-Box-/350489880505?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item519ad327b9

Stay away....

Offline bandaches

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Re: Are these people NUTS???
« Reply #594 on: September 05, 2011, 07:54:30 AM »
Stay away....
Why stay away?  Do these come with topps plastic wrap?
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anything