Are Topps ‘hit’ cards packaged at random?

[Fanatical_and_Sickly]

After widespread accusations otherwise, an independent audit was performed

https://theathletic.com/5458369/2024/04/29/topps-sports-cards-randomization-kpmg/

[RawGoo]

Interesting.

[drono]

I agree that it's interesting, but I didn't see any statistics in the report showing how they audited and determined it was random.  Obviously they can't open all the product, and polling is based on a representative sampling and always has a percentage of error - which could easily be the loaded boxes given to celebrities and social media influencers.  Otherwise how would Mr. Wilkinson know to be on the street by the candy store where Charlie would find the golden ticket?

[RawGoo]

I agree that it's interesting, but I didn't see any statistics in the report showing how they audited and determined it was random.  Obviously they can't open all the product, and polling is based on a representative sampling and always has a percentage of error - which could easily be the loaded boxes given to celebrities and social media influencers.  Otherwise how would Mr. Wilkinson know to be on the street by the candy store where Charlie would find the golden ticket?

Very true, and I noted the lack of statistics as well.  People gifted with loaded boxes wouldn't be likely to rat out the gifters.

[lucidjc]

Can't this be determined by watching a loading process? There has to be one.

[sco(o)t]

Can't this be determined by watching a loading process? There has to be one.

I have always thought it would be fascinating to see how the packs and boxes are loaded. I am not familiar with how Topps distributes hits in their sport card sets, but if anything like Wacky Packages, the process can't be completely random because they usually have so many hits per box, per case, etc. We've all probably been burned with not getting the advertised hits in a box before, but for the most part, they usually get it right. Also, we have all seen that hits often fall in a certain position within a pack and sometimes even certain boxes in a case. So again, not completely random.

[bandaches]

There is no such thing as something being truly random so there is that.....

[RawGoo]

I know that certain non-sports card companies sell "Archive" boxes with, say, one of every autograph hit in them.  So they can definitely control what goes where when they want to.

[Fanatical_and_Sickly]

So they can definitely control what goes where when they want to.

Yep, they definitely have to control it all in order to make sure it's random. LOL

[JailOJohn]

Its funny DrOno mentions the golden ticket….when my kid and I were opening packs of ANS, we would sing “I got a golden ticket!” We never actually did get anything great.

[drono]

Can't this be determined by watching a loading process? There has to be one.

I'm guessing there are multiple steps to the process.  I wouldn't think that the hits were part of the uncut sheets - if they still even do the printing that way, so they would have to be separate.  You would have to monitor which hit goes into which packs, then which packs go into which boxes, then which boxes go into which cases, then which cases get sent where.  Unless they were playing with a deck of marked cards, I think it would be difficult at best to keep up with what went where.  Without knowing that, it might be easy to play the shell game and control which boxes had the most or better hits. 

As Ernie stated, there is no random in the real world - there is always some underlying process that forms the algorithm to determine what is next in the sequence.  Why do you think in our fully connected world, we still have paper ballots for our elections?  If you can't see it with your eyes, and even if you can, can you really trust the process to be fair?

Its funny DrOno mentions the golden ticket….when my kid and I were opening packs of ANS, we would sing “I got a golden ticket!” We never actually did get anything great.

If you read the article, they mentioned you could get a lot of hits if you were like Rupert Salt.  He's Veruca's father, and she was the only one who obviously got a golden ticket from opening lots and lots of boxes of Wonka chocolates.

[MoldRush]

Can't this be determined by watching a loading process? There has to be one.

I have the answer!  Contact the producers of the TV show ‘How It’s Made’ and get them to pursue Topps to do a segment on the card production process, from printing to cutting and placing in packs.  Come to think of it, I’d be kind of surprised if they haven’t already done a segment.

[Hustler08]

I have the answer!  Contact the producers of the TV show ‘How It’s Made’ and get them to pursue Topps to do a segment on the card production process, from printing to cutting and placing in packs.  Come to think of it, I’d be kind of surprised if they haven’t already done a segment.

Right on!! DUDE!! - it will surely come out then!! 

[Plastered Peanut]

There is no such thing as something being truly random so there is that.....

I always wondered how a casino can advertise that a slot machine is a "95% guaranteed payout" and "random!" at the same time.   I think I heard it "explained" once on a Vegas documentary, or a slot machine manufacturer documentary, but it sounded like double-talk to me; so much so that I can't repeat what it is they said.

I love playing poker, but would never touch an on-line game.   Maybe it has something to do with my career as a computer programmer.   

[sco(o)t]

I always wondered how a casino can advertise that a slot machine is a "95% guaranteed payout" and "random!" at the same time.   I think I heard it "explained" once on a Vegas documentary, or a slot machine manufacturer documentary, but it sounded like double-talk to me; so much so that I can't repeat what it is they said.

I love playing poker, but would never touch an on-line game.   Maybe it has something to do with my career as a computer programmer.   

As such, I am sure you are aware that in many programming languages, the random function actually generates on offset into a predetermined list of numbers. Once again, proving random is not really random. As a boomer side rant, does it slightly annoy anyone else when people say something like, “a random stranger approached me.”?  Always seems redundant when people us it  in that fashion.

[Plastered Peanut]

As such, I am sure you are aware that in many programming languages, the random function actually generates on offset into a predetermined list of numbers. Once again, proving random is not really random. As a boomer side rant, does it slightly annoy anyone else when people say something like, “a random stranger approached me.”?  Always seems redundant when people us it  in that fashion.

A good one from George Carlin is "...how come no one comes up to you in the street and says, "I don't know you---what a big world!""

[drono]

As such, I am sure you are aware that in many programming languages, the random function actually generates on offset into a predetermined list of numbers. Once again, proving random is not really random.

So in order to avoid this, you can reset the "seed" using something like the number of milliseconds on the system clock, but even then it's not truly random and often produces skewed results.

As a boomer side rant, does it slightly annoy anyone else when people say something like, “a random stranger approached me.”?  Always seems redundant when people us it  in that fashion.

It used to when my kids said that, but I soon gave up trying to explain that it wasn't random.  Sorry, it's the engineer in me.

It's just like the over use of "literally."  Our washing machine broke during the Pandemic, and we went to buy another one.  My wife told the salesperson that "she (my wife) literally had clothes coming out of her ears."  I then told her (the salesperson), "we do have a lot of clothes piling up, but my ears are clothes free."  Fortunately my wife really loves me and didn't see it as an insult.

[drono]

It's just like the over use of "literally."  Our washing machine broke during the Pandemic, and we went to buy another one.  My wife told the salesperson that "she (my wife) literally had clothes coming out of her ears."  I then told her (the salesperson), "we do have a lot of clothes piling up, but my ears are clothes free."  Fortunately my wife really loves me and didn't see it as an insult.

I think my biggest pet peeve is the improper use of the word "myself."  You don't come see myself, you come see me.  I wasn't done by Joe, Harry, and myself.  It was done by Joe, Harry, and me.  I'm not a Cho-ian when it comes to grammar; I keep my mouth shut, but it does make me cringe like someone scratching their fingernails on a chalk board.  Actually that sound doesn't really bother me, but for some reason using an emory board does.  Whenever I just see one, I react like showing a crucifix to a vampire.

[bandaches]

I think my biggest pet peeve is the improper use of the word "myself."  You don't come see myself, you come see me.  I wasn't done by Joe, Harry, and myself.  It was done by Joe, Harry, and me.  I'm not a Cho-ian when it comes to grammar; I keep my mouth shut, but it does make me cringe like someone scratching their fingernails on a chalk board.  Actually that sound doesn't really bother me, but for some reason using an emory board does.  Whenever I just see one, I react like showing a crucifix to a vampire.

I agree with you myself on this!

[freetoes]

So in order to avoid this, you can reset the "seed" using something like the number of milliseconds on the system clock, but even then it's not truly random and often produces skewed results.

It used to when my kids said that, but I soon gave up trying to explain that it wasn't random.  Sorry, it's the engineer in me.

It's just like the over use of "literally."  Our washing machine broke during the Pandemic, and we went to buy another one.  My wife told the salesperson that "she (my wife) literally had clothes coming out of her ears."  I then told her (the salesperson), "we do have a lot of clothes piling up, but my ears are clothes free."  Fortunately my wife really loves me and didn't see it as an insult.

I remember a coworker saying, "This is taking literally forever," while downloading a large file. Since he was still waiting, I said, "He's not wrong yet."

[Plastered Peanut]

...it does make me cringe like someone scratching their fingernails on a chalk board.  Actually that sound doesn't really bother me, but for some reason using an emory board does.  Whenever I just see one, I react like showing a crucifix to a vampire.

interesting.   I'm the exact opposite.   emory board ok.   nails on a chalkboard not ok.   also, maybe worse than nails on a chalkboard:  the idea and/or image of someone scraping their incisors on those cheap wooden spoons that came with the little cup of ice cream.

[drono]

maybe worse than nails on a chalkboard:  the idea and/or image of someone scraping their incisors on those cheap wooden spoons that came with the little cup of ice cream.

Those bother me too, and I don't remember how many cups of ice cream I ate while in elementary school.