Author Topic: I suspect a shill bid!  (Read 8514 times)

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Offline BumChex

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I suspect a shill bid!
« on: August 21, 2010, 11:48:46 PM »
This auction seems too strange not to be a shill bid:

http://cgi.ebay.com/Wacky-Packages-series-6-SEALED-postcard-set-w-sketch-/370421090868

Thoughts?

Offline Hustler08

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2010, 05:49:30 AM »
This auction seems too strange not to be a shill bid:

http://cgi.ebay.com/Wacky-Packages-series-6-SEALED-postcard-set-w-sketch-/370421090868

Thoughts?

looks like it to mw as well...keeps pushing and pushing...higher and higher...this is way past :^) chasing...

Offline DrSushi

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2010, 06:47:21 AM »
This auction seems too strange not to be a shill bid:

http://cgi.ebay.com/Wacky-Packages-series-6-SEALED-postcard-set-w-sketch-/370421090868

Thoughts?

It looks like forum member crackedjerk is the seller. I can't imagine he is a party to shilling, so perhaps it is just an overzealous bidder.

Offline Dr Popper

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2010, 07:15:26 AM »
This auction seems too strange not to be a shill bid:

http://cgi.ebay.com/Wacky-Packages-series-6-SEALED-postcard-set-w-sketch-/370421090868

Thoughts?

Wow, that's nuts.  Watch there be an Alpha Bits in there!
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Online RawGoo

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2010, 07:15:56 AM »
It looks like forum member crackedjerk is the seller. I can't imagine he is a party to shilling, so perhaps it is just an overzealous bidder.
I've dealt with crackedjerk before, and I agree, I don't think he'd be a party to shilling.  And, Leslie is in there bidding at $250, so why think no one else would go that high?   When you think about it, Neil posted some awesome combo and color sketches that no one has reported finding, so if there is a possibility of a $300+ sketch in that package, the current bids may not be so far out there.

Offline bandaches

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2010, 09:18:42 AM »
This auction seems too strange not to be a shill bid:

http://cgi.ebay.com/Wacky-Packages-series-6-SEALED-postcard-set-w-sketch-/370421090868

Thoughts?
Isn't the seller a reputable forum member?  I would say it is much more likely another person who has had it with Leslie winning everything especially where she places obnoxiously large early bids and is trying to outgun her or make her pay a lot.  Her bidding is creating some odd dynamics in this hobby.
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Offline BumChex

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2010, 09:33:04 AM »
It looks like forum member crackedjerk is the seller. I can't imagine he is a party to shilling, so perhaps it is just an overzealous bidder.
I wasn't aware the seller was a forum member. It's probably not then. It just seemed odd that the top bidder kept bumping up their bid in small increments, almost like bidding just a little to see how far they could push the top bidder. The thing that also seemed odd is that I believe this was a 7 day auction and it was bid up over $250 with 3 days left on the auction. That never seems to happen any more. Usually the bidding will stay somewhat low and on the last day that is when the bidding wars will happen. Could just be an anomaly.

Online Fanatical_and_Sickly

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2010, 10:34:37 AM »
I wasn't aware the seller was a forum member. It's probably not then. It just seemed odd that the top bidder kept bumping up their bid in small increments, almost like bidding just a little to see how far they could push the top bidder. The thing that also seemed odd is that I believe this was a 7 day auction and it was bid up over $250 with 3 days left on the auction. That never seems to happen any more. Usually the bidding will stay somewhat low and on the last day that is when the bidding wars will happen. Could just be an anomaly.
I'm with Ernie on this. It looks like someone is irked for whatever reason, and is placing bids to push up the final price on the winner but doesn't want to win the item themselves. Seriously, who places bids ending with 99 cents with the intent of winning?

Offline Dr Popper

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2010, 11:08:52 AM »
I'm with Ernie on this. It looks like someone is irked for whatever reason, and is placing bids to push up the final price on the winner but doesn't want to win the item themselves. Seriously, who places bids ending with 99 cents with the intent of winning?

I can say I've had the same inclination of bidding against Leslie and bidding unreasonably high just to win.  Although I haven't done it yet I could definitely see someone else doing the same thing.  It's frustrating always losing to the same bidder.
Dr Popper (aka Rob Palmer)

Offline JasonLiebig

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2010, 11:35:32 AM »
I can say I've had the same inclination of bidding against Leslie and bidding unreasonably high just to win.  Although I haven't done it yet I could definitely see someone else doing the same thing.  It's frustrating always losing to the same bidder.

This made me laugh, because I've definitely had this same impulse, and even acted on it.  I recently put an obnoxious bid on something because I knew someone (who always outbids me) was planning on bidding. 

Someone could write a term paper on this phenomenon.  What would it be called?
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Offline BumChex

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2010, 12:30:55 PM »
I can say I've had the same inclination of bidding against Leslie and bidding unreasonably high just to win.  Although I haven't done it yet I could definitely see someone else doing the same thing.  It's frustrating always losing to the same bidder.
Well now we have a pretty good idea of what her cap is on the sketch packs. I don't know if she ever rebids after her initial bid. You could see that on the colored OLDS sketches. Her bid was always $1200 and she never bid higher that I am aware of.

Offline Monsterettes

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #11 on: August 22, 2010, 12:42:55 PM »
I'm with Ernie on this. It looks like someone is irked for whatever reason, and is placing bids to push up the final price on the winner but doesn't want to win the item themselves. Seriously, who places bids ending with 99 cents with the intent of winning?
As many people have noted, Tom is an upstanding guy and I'm sure he isn't shilling.  The other theory seems much more likely under the circumstances -- although it looks as though Tom will luck out!

Offline BumChex

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2010, 01:38:41 PM »
As many people have noted, Tom is an upstanding guy and I'm sure he isn't shilling.  The other theory seems much more likely under the circumstances -- although it looks as though Tom will luck out!

Yes, the one that is benefiting is the seller. I doubt it will go any higher though.

Offline Plan 9

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2010, 04:32:13 PM »
I don't know how anyone can think they can make sense of the lunacy of ebayers.

Offline Buz

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2010, 04:43:29 PM »
This made me laugh, because I've definitely had this same impulse, and even acted on it.  I recently put an obnoxious bid on something because I knew someone (who always outbids me) was planning on bidding. 

Someone could write a term paper on this phenomenon.  What would it be called?

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Offline BustedFinger

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2010, 04:48:46 PM »
So can someone please explain to me how you are so sure that Leslie is one of the bidders?  Isn't eBay supposed to hide all bidder ids?  I know when I look at the bid history, all I see is a bunch of cryptic codes so how can you ever be sure who is bidding on something?
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Offline DrSushi

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2010, 05:55:56 PM »
So can someone please explain to me how you are so sure that Leslie is one of the bidders?  Isn't eBay supposed to hide all bidder ids?  I know when I look at the bid history, all I see is a bunch of cryptic codes so how can you ever be sure who is bidding on something?

You're not alone - I was wondering the same thing.

Offline Buz

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2010, 06:19:27 PM »
You're not alone - I was wondering the same thing.

Likewise. I am guessing correlating feedback numbers with people you've done business with before? Is that the trick?
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Online RawGoo

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2010, 06:20:27 PM »
So can someone please explain to me how you are so sure that Leslie is one of the bidders?  Isn't eBay supposed to hide all bidder ids?  I know when I look at the bid history, all I see is a bunch of cryptic codes so how can you ever be sure who is bidding on something?
For some reason, ebay 'hides' the IDs, but not thoroughly, or randomly.  I figured out Leslie's because I saw her user ID and feedback score on auctions where she was the seller, and then a 'hidden' ID with similar letters & numbers and the same feedback score was the high bidder on some Old School color sketch auctions.  That's the only one I recognize as a bidder. 

Offline crackedjerk

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2010, 07:01:19 PM »
This auction seems too strange not to be a shill bid:

http://cgi.ebay.com/Wacky-Packages-series-6-SEALED-postcard-set-w-sketch-/370421090868

Thoughts?

Yep, I'm the seller on this auction.  I can completely understand your instincts to think this auction could be shilled.  I was surprised myself, as much by how quickly the bids went up as by the current price.  I'll admit, I can't figure it out.  It's funny, but I though there'd almost be as much interest (not necessarily dollar amount, but watchers, bids, and "talk") about the ANS7 sell sheet I have up.  I drove to, I think, 8 Targets in the last week or two looking and they are simply tough to find.  Don't think any others have been on ebay.  I figured the postcard pack would get a few high rollers (and perhaps that's what it's gotten) and the sell sheet would get the people like me, those who can't afford the going rate for a sealed postacard set, but want something fairly unique (hey, there's got to be fewer than 300 of these out there).  Of course, we'll see how these end.  I'm always fascinated by buyer/bidder behavior, particularly on fairly unique items.

Offline BumChex

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2010, 07:00:37 AM »
For some reason, ebay 'hides' the IDs, but not thoroughly, or randomly.  I figured out Leslie's because I saw her user ID and feedback score on auctions where she was the seller, and then a 'hidden' ID with similar letters & numbers and the same feedback score was the high bidder on some Old School color sketch auctions.  That's the only one I recognize as a bidder. 
That is correct.

Offline Dr Popper

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2010, 09:31:43 AM »
This made me laugh, because I've definitely had this same impulse, and even acted on it.  I recently put an obnoxious bid on something because I knew someone (who always outbids me) was planning on bidding. 

Someone could write a term paper on this phenomenon.  What would it be called?

Losing sucks! ? 
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Offline FourRoses

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #22 on: August 23, 2010, 09:32:04 AM »
Get used to this because it's not going to stop and will only get worse. Almost $300 for a set of the post cards is unbelievable. Just wait until next time these cards go on sale.

I've watched the same thing happen with Mattel and their Masters of the Universe Classic line. When the line first started it wasn't difficult to get online (on the 15th of the month) and order a figure. Now it like pandemonium and the equivalent of buying Cabbage Patch Dolls in the 1980's except online.

Offline Dr Popper

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #23 on: August 23, 2010, 09:35:20 AM »
Get used to this because it's not going to stop and will only get worse. Almost $300 for a set of the post cards is unbelievable. Just wait until next time these cards go on sale.

I've watched the same thing happen with Mattel and their Masters of the Universe Classic line. When the line first started it wasn't difficult to get online (on the 15th of the month) and order a figure. Now it like pandemonium and the equivalent of buying Cabbage Patch Dolls in the 1980's except online.

I forget how the postcards came packaged relative to the sketch cards, but if the sketch was on the outside you may be able to see it through the envelope with light.  Does anyone remember or still have one unoponed who can verify this?
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Offline FourRoses

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #24 on: August 23, 2010, 09:51:50 AM »
I thought my sketch card was packed right behind the fold. Although, the back of the card was facing me so even if you could somehow look through the wrapper you wouldn't see much.

Offline BumChex

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #25 on: August 23, 2010, 11:14:36 AM »
I thought my sketch card was packed right behind the fold. Although, the back of the card was facing me so even if you could somehow look through the wrapper you wouldn't see much.
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Offline NEZHEAD42

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #26 on: August 23, 2010, 11:47:32 AM »
Yep, I'm the seller on this auction.  I can completely understand your instincts to think this auction could be shilled.  I was surprised myself, as much by how quickly the bids went up as by the current price.  I'll admit, I can't figure it out.  It's funny, but I though there'd almost be as much interest (not necessarily dollar amount, but watchers, bids, and "talk") about the ANS7 sell sheet I have up.  I drove to, I think, 8 Targets in the last week or two looking and they are simply tough to find.  Don't think any others have been on ebay.  I figured the postcard pack would get a few high rollers (and perhaps that's what it's gotten) and the sell sheet would get the people like me, those who can't afford the going rate for a sealed postacard set, but want something fairly unique (hey, there's got to be fewer than 300 of these out there).  Of course, we'll see how these end.  I'm always fascinated by buyer/bidder behavior, particularly on fairly unique items.

I agree with the rarity of the Target ANS7 sell sheet. They were only posted for a month in the stores. How many collectors walked into a store and got one of them? 20? 10? Less than that? Certainly not many. I got one from my local Target and I remember a few others posting that they too got one. When they were taken down to make way for the next sell sheet, I am sure Target threw them away. Why would they keep them? I don't know how many stores Target has in their chain, but say lets say there are 500 stores. Assuming each store got a sell sheet, you can also assume that 500 sell sheets were printed. If 20 of them were "saved" by collectors, then 480 were trashed. That certainly makes the sell sheet a rare and hard to come by item. I would think that it would fetch at least $30-$40 on ebay.

I also checked my Target today and no ANS7 yet.
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Offline bandaches

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #27 on: August 23, 2010, 06:39:04 PM »
I forget how the postcards came packaged relative to the sketch cards, but if the sketch was on the outside you may be able to see it through the envelope with light.  Does anyone remember or still have one unoponed who can verify this?
Who is the person who won this?  This person was hell bent on winning almost as if he/she knew the sketch and instead of sniping it, bid rather stupidly.  Any chance that someone has knowledge of the sketches by numbers?
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Offline BumChex

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #28 on: August 23, 2010, 06:51:56 PM »
Who is the person who won this?  This person was hell bent on winning almost as if he/she knew the sketch and instead of sniping it, bid rather stupidly.  Any chance that someone has knowledge of the sketches by numbers?
No idea but $338 for a set is obscene! Someone must have known what sketch was in the pack to pay that much. I wonder if there is a way to tell by the numbers that have surfaced? Does anyone know the pattern? There must be some type of pattern.
I just looked at my sketches and it doesn't look like the artists numbered the cards as the numbering looks it was done by 2 different people. I also noticed that the puzzle pieces are in increments of 5.
I really don't think there is a way to figure this out.

Online Fanatical_and_Sickly

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #29 on: August 23, 2010, 06:57:20 PM »
I also noticed that the puzzle pieces are in increments of 5.
I really don't think there is a way to figure this out.
well, there *are* 5 artists. if topps cycled through the sketches, 1 from each artist, always in the same order, that's a clear pattern of the same artist every increment of 5

Offline BumChex

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Re: I suspect a shill bid!
« Reply #30 on: August 23, 2010, 07:02:19 PM »
well, there *are* 5 artists. if topps cycled through the sketches, 1 from each artist, always in the same order, that's a clear pattern of the same artist every increment of 5
That does make sense but the other 2 I got from the same artist is 162 and 289 so that isn't following the same pattern on the second run. I guess I should have explained this better. The first 150 might have followed a pattern but I don't know if the 2nd batch of 150 does.

 

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