Author Topic: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis  (Read 7740 times)

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Offline Paul_Maul

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1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« on: December 30, 2015, 06:14:27 AM »
I'm always curious how much the PSA population for a given card means about actual scarcity.

The 1st series is interesting since there are several different levels of scarcity based on the sheet layout.

I computed the total PSA 9 and 10 combined population for each title and compared that to number of copies per sheet:

1 per sheet titles:

Band-Ache: 4
Paul Maul: 6
Lavirus: 5
Mutts: 6

Average for 1 per sheet titles: 5.25

2 per sheet titles:

Vicejoy: 10
Tied: 7
Spray Nit: 12
Pure Hex: 10
Minute Lice: 7
Liptorn: 5
Kook-Aid: 4
Horrid: 12
Hostage: 5
Grave Train: 3
Fink: 7
Dopey Whip: 3
Camals: 7
Cover Ghoul: 11

Average for 2 per sheet titles: 7.35

3 per sheet titles:

Skimpy: 6
Quacker: 12
Mrs. Klean: 4
Gadzooka: 9
Chock: 10

Average for 3 per sheet titles: 8.2

4 per sheet titles:

Weakies: 11
6-Up: 18
Jail-O: 12
Duzn't: 6
Crust: 7
Breadcrust: 10

Average for 4 per sheet titles: 10.7

6 per sheet titles:

Maddie Boy: 7

So we see that, Maddie Boy aside, the average 9/10 populations are consistent with per sheet representation.

It's then interesting to separate the titles from each group into categories based on individual populations: below average, average and above average. This tells us which cards are scarcer for reasons other than sheet scarcity, such as endemic centering problems often caused by sheet position.




« Last Edit: December 30, 2015, 02:30:01 PM by Paul_Maul »

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2015, 06:57:22 AM »
1st series sheet for reference....


Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2015, 07:00:49 AM »
1 per sheet sticker discussion:

Band-Ache and Lavirus appear to be a bit tougher than Paul Maul and Mutts. I think that's consistent with most collectors' experience. Lavirus is on the edge of the sheet making it susceptible to centering problems and mis-cutting. Band-Ache always seems to be cut funny although it is not on the edge of the sheet, and it still does not seem impossible that Band-Ache was pulled at some point, though there is no evidence for that.

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2015, 07:11:00 AM »
2 per sheet sticker discussion:

The tougher 2 per sheet stickers are:

Liptorn: 5
Kook-Aid: 4
Hostage: 5
Grave Train: 3
Dopey Whip: 3

Kook-Aid and Dopey Whip are well-known toughies and are both on the edge of the sheet. Liptorn and Hostage, as well as one copy of Grave Train, all appear in the same sheet column. No idea if that is significant.

The most common 2 per sheet stickers in high grade are:

Vicejoy: 10
Spray Nit: 12
Pure Hex: 10
Horrid: 12
Cover Ghoul: 11

Three of these are in the center of the sheet. Strange how Spray Nit is common, being an edge sticker. The centering woes that usually affect edge stickers are less pronounced with "thin" titles (more border space).

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2015, 07:14:12 AM »
By the way, I encourage veteran collectors to mention specific defects that are common for given titles. For example, "Band-Ache always seems to be tilted/diamond cut."

Lavirus is really snakebit, it's one per sheet, on the edge of the sheet, and has that odd black notch near the upper left, making it extra sensitive to centering issues.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2015, 07:23:20 AM by Paul_Maul »

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2015, 07:17:15 AM »
3 per sheet sticker discussion:

The two in this category that seem tougher than the others are Mrs. Klean and Skimpy. Mrs. Klean has two of its three copies on the left edge of the sheet, Skimpy has one on the right edge.

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2015, 07:21:25 AM »
Just noticed, this sheet that Greg scanned shows the infamous red line at the top, which only some 1st series sheets have. Weird how the red line is thickest above Duznt and Horrid and gets thinner as you move to the right.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2015, 06:43:35 PM by Paul_Maul »

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2015, 07:29:01 AM »
4 per sheet sticker discussion:

Crust and Duznt appear to be the toughest from this group. Two Crusts are in the same column as the 2 per sheet toughies. Why Duznt is tough in super high grade is not clear.

6-Up is by far the most common 1st series title in PSA 9/10. Odd since it has half its population coming from the right edge.


Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2015, 07:35:36 AM »
Maddie Boy is not as common as one might expect in super high grade. Two of the 6 copies are on the edge, but it's in the same league as a tougher 4 per sheet title or an average 2 per sheet title.

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2015, 11:05:22 AM »
Finally, a list of the whole series in order of 9/10 population. The ones in red are the ones I have been unable to obtain a PSA 9 or 10 of after actively searching for 13+ years. A little more randomness here, as one might expect.

Grave Train: 3
Dopey Whip: 3
Band-Ache: 4
Kook-Aid: 4
Mrs. Klean: 4
Liptorn: 5
Hostage: 5
Lavirus: 5
Paul Maul: 6
Mutts: 6
Skimpy: 6
Duznt: 6
Tied: 7
Minute Lice: 7
Fink: 7
Camals: 7
Crust: 7
Maddie Boy: 7
Gadzooka: 9
Vicejoy: 10
Pure Hex: 10
Chock: 10
Breadcrust: 10
Weakies: 11
Cover Ghoul: 11
Spray Nit: 12
Horrid: 12
Quacker: 12
Jail-O: 12
6-Up: 18

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2015, 03:19:02 PM »
Here's the overall ranking if you include population of PSA 8 or higher. These population numbers are less accurate because of people cracking out to try to receive a better grade, but they should still be pretty accurate relatively speaking. The gap between Band-Ache/Lavirus and Mutts/Paul Maul is more pronounced here. Minute Lice is one of the toughest 8s in the set. Maddie Boy takes its rightful spot.

Band-Ache: 11
Lavirus: 16
Minute Lice: 17
Grave Train: 19
Dopey Whip: 19
Mutts: 21
Kook-Aid: 24
Mrs. Klean: 24
Camals: 25
Liptorn: 26
Tied: 27
Paul Maul: 28
Vicejoy: 28
Breadcrust: 29
Duznt: 30
Crust: 31
Chock: 32
Spray Nit: 32
Horrid: 33
Pure Hex: 33
Fink: 34
Hostage: 35
Gadzooka: 35
Skimpy: 36
Jail-O: 37
Cover Ghoul: 38
Weakies: 42
Quacker: 44
6-Up: 45
Maddie Boy: 47

Offline ratchet007

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2015, 04:02:03 PM »
This is very interesting Dave. I've never paid as much attention to these numbers as I have concerning the 16th Series.  I'm sure there would be some interesting comparisons between the two sets.

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2015, 04:06:26 PM »
Overall, the 9/10 population numbers for the 16ths are much higher, so those with lower ones (most notably Floral) really stand out.

Offline DrSushi

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2015, 04:45:38 PM »
Why Duznt is tough in super high grade is not clear.


Do you give any credence to the theory that Duznt was damaged more frequently since it was the first title listed and thus more likely to be on top of the stack of Wackies - and so bore the brunt of the rubber band gouging? This seems likely at least for those of us with OCD tendencies whose collections are more likely to have survived.

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2015, 04:52:04 PM »
Do you give any credence to the theory that Duznt was damaged more frequently since it was the first title listed and thus more likely to be on top of the stack of Wackies - and so bore the brunt of the rubber band gouging? This seems likely at least for those of us with OCD tendencies whose collections are more likely to have survived.

That's a good point. I used to think that explanation was silly, but the first card does seem to be tougher in several sets. Gurgle is definitely tough in series 2, though that is also centering based.

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2015, 06:36:28 PM »
In fact I actually bought and subsequently returned a PSA 8 Duznt that had terrible rubber band marks, not sure what that grader was smoking.

Offline DrSushi

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2015, 07:24:03 PM »
In fact I actually bought and subsequently returned a PSA 8 Duznt that had terrible rubber band marks, not sure what that grader was smoking.

Duznt was always on top of my rubber-banded 1st series set.

Offline RawGoo

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #17 on: January 02, 2016, 11:02:45 AM »
Lots of great analysis here Dave, thanks!

Your mention of the sheet with the red line at the top fits perfectly with a Horrid I have.  And, my raw Lavirus has that darned black mark at the upper left, along with a hint of red along the left edge, which is why I hesitate to get it graded.  It's not a particularly pretty sticker  :sad:

Oh, and BTW, once I get my mis-labeled PSA stickers corrected there will be one less Gadzooka 8 - it's actually a Series 2 Sugarmess. 
« Last Edit: January 02, 2016, 11:09:53 AM by RawGoo »

Offline Tom Keen

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2016, 08:10:38 PM »
In fact I actually bought and subsequently returned a PSA 8 Duznt that had terrible rubber band marks, not sure what that grader was smoking.
Have you ever done analysis on the diecut variations that exist within series 1 in terms of scarcity and theories on the location on sheets for these variations?  The wavey cut Maddie Boy top is the most intriguing for me.

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analys
« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2016, 09:12:58 PM »
Have you ever done analysis on the diecut variations that exist within series 1 in terms of scarcity and theories on the location on sheets for these variations?  The wavey cut Maddie Boy top is the most intriguing for me.

I think most of these variations stem from the different sheet positions and go back to the 1967 replacements. Would have to determine which die cut comes from which sheet position to gauge rarity.

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #20 on: January 05, 2016, 07:02:52 AM »
I haven't really studied the 1st series die cut variations in any depth. I remember noticing them on Duznt and Grave Train and assuming it had to do with those titles replacing die cuts. I don't remember the Maddie Boy one you are talking about. Do you have an example? But it doesn't seem like any version should be rarer, because the three different Maddie Boys occur in equal numbers per sheet.

Offline Tom Keen

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2016, 07:54:39 PM »
I found a cloth sticker example, not all cloth stickers have this cut either.  I have seen some regular white backs with this cut too but very far and few between.  Maybe not location of sticker on sheet but a specific press that had a wavey cutter?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1973-WACKY-PACKAGES-SERIES-1-MADDIE-BOY-CLOTH-STICKER-PSA-7-ST-/151937013552?hash=item236026d730:g:l-QAAOSwMpZUpw2Kh


Offline drono

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2016, 01:14:23 PM »
For those of us with 50+ year-old eyes.  Are you talking about the black border at the top of the can not being perfectly curved but having a couple of "waves?"

Offline Tom Keen

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #23 on: January 09, 2016, 07:41:41 PM »
yes, the diecut on this one is pretty white so I had hoped you would be able to see he wavy cut pretty well.

Offline Jean Nutty

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #24 on: January 10, 2016, 09:57:22 PM »
In fact I actually bought and subsequently returned a PSA 8 Duznt that had terrible rubber band marks, not sure what that grader was smoking.

That grader was smoking Mex of course

Mex-Pax, that is . . .

Offline NationalSpittoon

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #25 on: July 06, 2017, 07:55:12 AM »
NationalSpittoon here again, bringing back another old thread.
I want to expand upon this.

Series 2 nines and tens according to (Run Tony) sheet, White Backs with no qualifiers:

3 per sheet:

Commie - 9
Chicken Fat - 4
All Brain - 4
Blecch - 14
Nertz - 6
Boo-Hoo - 21
Fish Bone - 12
Gloom - 11
Kook - 11
Schtick - 2
Poopsie - 6

Average: 9

Tougher 2 per sheet titles:

Awful Bits - 3
Blunder - 10
Vile - 4
Hurts - 6
Log Cave In - 12
Gyppy Pop - 5
Putrid Cat Chow - 4
8-Lives - 1
Brittle - 1
Dull - 6
Run Tony - 3

Average: 5

Other 3 per sheet titles:

Gurgle - 6
Botch - 1
Sailem - 6
Sugarmess - 3
Plastered - 13
Minute Mud - 7
Ajerx - 9
Exceedrin - 11
Ultra Blight - 9
Cap'n Crud - 2
Ditch Masters - 3

Average: 6.36

Overall, it comes down to border shape more than how many times it appears on the sheet. (Differs from series 1.)
« Last Edit: July 06, 2017, 10:47:59 AM by NationalSpittoon »
Mark

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #26 on: July 06, 2017, 09:45:55 AM »
You seem to be looking at one particular half sheet, but on the other side of the sheet, the second row is repeated three times instead of the first. So really the only row of stickers appearing twice per sheet is the third row. The others all appear "2.5 times per sheet."

I' ve never thought this minor difference was enough to view those titles as noticeably tougher, but it does have some effect I guess.

You're right though, the toughest titles in this series are that way because of endemic centering problems stemming from sheet position and sticker placement issues.

I only did this with series 1 because of the odd nature of that sheet with stickers appearing anywhere from one to six times per sheet. No other series has this kind of distribution, except the die cuts do have oddities depending on which number variations they contain.

Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #27 on: July 06, 2017, 09:58:46 AM »
Here's an example of a double sheet so you see what I mean:


Offline Paul_Maul

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #28 on: July 06, 2017, 10:19:18 AM »
NationalSpittoon here again, bringing back another old thread.
I want to expand upon this.

Series 2 nines and tens according to (Run Tony) sheet, White Backs with no qualifiers:



3 per sheet titles:

Gurgle - 6
Botch - 1
Sailem - 6
Sugarmess - 3
Plastered - 13
Minute Mud - 7
Ajerx - 9
Exceedrin - 11
Ultra Blight - 9
Cap'n Crud - 2
Ditch Masters - 3

Average: 8.18

That 8.18 doesn't seem right...seems like it should be closer to 6.4....

Offline NationalSpittoon

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Re: 1st Series PSA Population Analysis
« Reply #29 on: July 06, 2017, 10:47:12 AM »
That 8.18 doesn't seem right...seems like it should be closer to 6.4....

Yeah, must've counted wrong.
Mark