Shortage of NM tough original series items or a fluke?

[Kook]

I have noticed the gap widening lately between really tough nice condition original series items, and average condition relatively common items. Difficult stuff in really nice condition gets noticed, while the rest seems very depressed. This is my overall general observation over the last 6 to 12 months.

This one completed auction stood out big time to me. GAI8 3rd series red pack selling for $600. Is this a sign of things to come to plug those htf holes in our collections, or is this just an example of outright insanity?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1973-Topps-Wacky-Package-3rd-Series-Unopened-Wax-Pack-GAI-8-NM-MT-/221148155699?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item337d750f33&nma=true&si=N%2Fj9A%2FLJEvJcjRbMWsPohPy04Ks%3D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

Dave, what do you think?

[BumChex]

Did it sell? I can't tell. No bids.

[ClubbedCanadian]

Did it sell? I can't tell. No bids.

it sold for $600

[bigtomi]

Did it sell? I can't tell. No bids.

It was a BIN only.

[Paul_Maul]

I have noticed the gap widening lately between really tough nice condition original series items, and average condition relatively common items.

It's about time. I was always perplexed in the past as to why high grade wacky items didn't seem to command the same premium as high grade comics or sports cards.

I would call this particular auction a fluke, however. As I mentioned at the time, a similar GAI 8 3rd red sold for $172 at auction a few months ago.

[Paul_Maul]

Is it possible to see who the buyer was on a buy-it-now, even in "endcoded" form? I can't seem to see it.

[Kook]

Is it possible to see who the buyer was on a buy-it-now, even in "endcoded" form? I can't seem to see it.

I think when something sells BuyItNow, you can't see the winning bidder's (encoded) ID. I would watch the seller for the next week or 2 for feedback he either leaves or receives for this item, and then you will see the full userID of the buyer. I think he was asking $675 or $685, and accepted the best offer of $600.

[BumChex]

Is it possible to see who the buyer was on a buy-it-now, even in "endcoded" form? I can't seem to see it.

You can on the iPad even if its a BIN. When I hit the link last night I couldn't see who bought it because it went straight to the browser but if you copy the auction number and use the app you can see who bought it.

[bandaches]

I think when something sells BuyItNow, you can't see the winning bidder's (encoded) ID. I would watch the seller for the next week or 2 for feedback he either leaves or receives for this item, and then you will see the full userID of the buyer. I think he was asking $675 or $685, and accepted the best offer of $600.

Or watch him relist it now that he has the market believing it has a value of $600...I think it insane to pay this much for an unopened pack given how little faith we can put in grading systems and how many resealed packs are supposedly floating around.

[Bigmuc13]

$600 seems way too high for this item.  Series 1's don't usually even go for this much.  I think the last series 1 pack I sold went for $500.  Maybe rare stuff and higher end stuff has more of a market these days,  I guess we will see moving forward.

[Paul_Maul]

Or watch him relist it now that he has the market believing it has a value of $600...I think it insane to pay this much for an unopened pack given how little faith we can put in grading systems and how many resealed packs are supposedly floating around.

The possibility that it could be shilled occurred to me too, though I would never accuse the seller of that. It's equally possible that someone with more money that information just acted on whim.

Even if we posit the pack is legitimate (which it likely is), this is way out of the ballpark. Due to complete coincidence, we're fortunate to have a "comparable" which was $172, only a couple of months earlier. So this is an outlier to me, I see the pack as worth $100-200 in nice shape, the higher end of that range if certified.

[Paul_Maul]

$600 seems way too high for this item.  Series 1's don't usually even go for this much.  I think the last series 1 pack I sold went for $500.  Maybe rare stuff and higher end stuff has more of a market these days,  I guess we will see moving forward.

It's getting to the point where 1st series packs are so rare that their value is harder to pin down. Much greater risk of re-seal/fake here also.

If a PSA graded first series pack in nice shape came to market I'd be interested to see what it would go for. $500 to $1000 would not surprise me, because they just never come to market anymore.

[Kook]

$600 seems way too high for this item.  Series 1's don't usually even go for this much.  I think the last series 1 pack I sold went for $500.  Maybe rare stuff and higher end stuff has more of a market these days,  I guess we will see moving forward.

How long ago did you sell your 1st series pack? I have only ever come across 2 for sale in the last 7 or 8 years. I couldn't guarantee the authenticity of 1, the other I purchased.

I think this is a combination of low demand and low supply. If the right person comes along and wants the item, the price has the potential to spike because they don't know when or if the next one will come along, however, at auction, a very rare & valuable item may not bring much if there aren't 2 qualified & motivated buyers that have seen the item.

I see this as an issue with older opc items, ludlows, 1st series tanbacks & 14th trifolds. If one of the few collectors sees a puzzle piece or sticker needed to fill a tough set, the price can go very high, but if the few collectors have the puzzle piece or sticker already, the sticker either becomes less important trade bait or is totally passed by. It will take a newbie opc/ludlow/trifold etc... collector for the price to spike, but when/if that collector comes along, it's a crapshoot.

[Kook]

It's getting to the point where 1st series packs are so rare that their value is harder to pin down. Much greater risk of re-seal/fake here also.

If I were in the market for a really tough pack, I'd be more inclined to break the bank over a PSA pack rather than a GAI one. I've been burned before with GAI not even having the series correct on an unopened pack. I don't know that a GAI pack has much weight for authenticity as far as I'm concerned. I may risk $100 or possibly a bit more if it was something I was really having a hard time finding, but I wouldn't go much more (any more than I was prepared to lose) based on GAIs word.

If a PSA graded first series pack in nice shape came to market I'd be interested to see what it would go for. $500 to $1000 would not surprise me, because they just never come to market anymore.

I agree that a very rare PSA pack more likely has the potential to spike SHARPLY in value due to supply totally drying up as opposed to a GAI pack, though not totally guaranteed. When you are dealing with something that may take you many years to come across again, if ever, some may gamble even if the item is raw or GAI certified. i.e. Dave, how much would you pay for a 10c wacky ad pack that was GAI 8 certified?

[bandaches]

It's getting to the point where 1st series packs are so rare that their value is harder to pin down. Much greater risk of re-seal/fake here also.

If a PSA graded first series pack in nice shape came to market I'd be interested to see what it would go for. $500 to $1000 would not surprise me, because they just never come to market anymore.

I guess I should consider getting my pack graded and sell it because it doesn't mean much to me and I have many things I can do with $1000 

[Paul_Maul]

When you are dealing with something that may take you many years to come across again, if ever, some may gamble even if the item is raw or GAI certified. i.e. Dave, how much would you pay for a 10c wacky ad pack that was GAI 8 certified?

This is a hard question. I'd almost rather buy a raw pack that was returnable in the event I deemed it suspect. With a GAI pack, it's very hard to tell from within the holder. I definitely value provenance and would pay a premium for that. Provenance like with the 5-cent ad packs.

Also, if you want to get complicated, there is information out there about which GAI serial numbers are likeliest to be legit packs. At the beginning of the company's history, they were actually very reliable and early packs are all good. Of course, most later ones are good too, but the unreliability came with a change in personnel.

[Kook]

This is a hard question. I'd almost rather buy a raw pack that was returnable in the event I deemed it suspect. With a GAI pack, it's very hard to tell from within the holder. I definitely value provenance and would pay a premium for that. Provenance like with the 5-cent ad packs.

Also, if you want to get complicated, there is information out there about which GAI serial numbers are likeliest to be legit packs. At the beginning of the company's history, they were actually very reliable and early packs are all good. Of course, most later ones are good too, but the unreliability came with a change in personnel.

What can you say about a yellow GAI certified 15th series pack!?!?!?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/WACKY-PACKAGES-UNOPENED-1976-WACKY-PACKAGES-WAX-PACK-15TH-SERIES-NM-7-5-PSA-/181038430891?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item2a26bb3aab

[Paul_Maul]

What can you say about a yellow GAI certified 15th series pack!?!?!?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/WACKY-PACKAGES-UNOPENED-1976-WACKY-PACKAGES-WAX-PACK-15TH-SERIES-NM-7-5-PSA-/181038430891?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item2a26bb3aab

It's just one of those common funpacks with the 15th sticker and the 12th puzzle piece. GAI has identified them as 12th, 14th and 15th at different times. Variety is the spice of life!

[Bigmuc13]

How long ago did you sell your 1st series pack? I have only ever come across 2 for sale in the last 7 or 8 years. I couldn't guarantee the authenticity of 1, the other I purchased.

I sold it maybe 4-5 years ago. It was a legit pack.  I bought it from Greg Grant and he had it for many years.  He said it came from a known, trusted source. Can't remember who it was, it has been a while. I think I bought it in 2004.