OLDS2 non-sketch items officially virtually worthless

[Hustler08]

Good question, I don't know if Topps will be there. There are plenty of boxes left (read my post on the sold out?? thread). WowyZowy handles all the posters now so Mike would not have any to bring. Binders he would have though.

Went to the Philly Show today: Was good..No Topps - no Cereal Killer promos - not a ton of stuff - Greg got me a OS Box Poster - signed by Jay Lynch to my daughter and me...really cool!!

Hooked a Jolly Mean #43 - VG - no popped perf - sharp corners - $20 - little messed up in the front but nice overall...

Signed book by Jay!! nice wrappers...met Shoe, Demented, Greg, and GoodbyeKitty....

No olds3 promo's - no Series 8 promo's - what's the deal....a couple of cereal killer boxes - good cake by Roxanne

[Goodbye^Kitty^]

First, I have been following the forum for quite awhile now, but I have never posted before. I have never been an active poster on any forums actually.  But I find the discussion of our hobby and the value of collections intriguing.  As we all know, something only has value if someone is willing to buy it.  I think I can speak for most of us that are currently collecting, that our interest stems from our childhood. (You know, when you told your mother that you had to have a quarter so that you could buy five packs, “because that was the only the way they sell them mom!”).

I collect for myself, but yes I also try to acquire extras in the hope that there may be some value like there is with some of my original collection.  If our hobby falls into disfavor, and they have no value, at the very least it is something that I hope to pass along to my grandchildren, as something that I was “into”. 

But, I feel our hobby is feeling a pressure that we have all caused, and that very well may kill it.  Most of us are probably old enough, with at least some disposable income where we can, if not to buy cases outright, at least buy packs at $1.99, or as with the erasers, $2.99. The people that we really want to get into the hobby now, or sons, daughters and grandchildren can’t afford these prices on a regular basis.  If it takes 24 packs to make a base set that’s a lot of allowance!

I would say to those people that are willing to sell a base set for almost nothing, that you would do better for us as a community to give your set to a youngster, along with some unopened packs.  Maybe if it is a new series, don’t even give them the full set, but yet large enough to peak their interest.

Selfishly this will prolong the value of our collections (investments perhaps), as in 20 to 30 years those young men and women will make the same circle we have with the nostalgia in collecting Wacky Packages.

I have no marketing or economic background, so I do not know at what price point Topps can sell packs.  But unless there is a realistic price that new collectors can enter our hobby, we are only all just “playing with each other”.

Just my thoughts, happy collecting.     

Uh oh! You posted! Lol. Definitely agree with you

[Porkie]

Jason: I must have missed the "let's do a sticker subset of the sketch cards" discussion, sorry. I was actually thinking mini-stickers ala '82/'86 album series.


Something that struck me recently too is the price of a single pack of OLDS. At $1.99 these are significantly higher than the vintage series in its heyday, even allowing for inflation and a third sticker. To give an idea, a pack from 1973 with two stickers, a checklist, and a piece of gum was 5 cents. In 2010 that same 5 cents would be 21 cents with inflation. How did it get to $1.99 ?!?

[slamjim]

Jason: I must have missed the "let's do a sticker subset of the sketch cards" discussion, sorry. I was actually thinking mini-stickers ala '82/'86 album series.


Something that struck me recently too is the price of a single pack of OLDS. At $1.99 these are significantly higher than the vintage series in its heyday, even allowing for inflation and a third sticker. To give an idea, a pack from 1973 with two stickers, a checklist, and a piece of gum was 5 cents. In 2010 that same 5 cents would be 21 cents with inflation. How did it get to $1.99 ?!?

Where are you getting your numbers? OLDS is not sold per pack. OLDS packs have no set sale price. ANS and Flashback do have a price. OLDS is sold per box and all the contents inside the box (plus the retro box itself) are taken into account for the price. If you make up a fake price per pack (which includes stickers and checklist) you ignore the box (something you didn't get with the OS), sketch card, 5x7 cards, concept cards, poster, envelope, promo sticker and bonus sticker which are part of your purchase. All these items have costs to them including artist fees, printing, construction, packing, shipping, collating, cutting, etc.

For ANS series and Flashback you get more stickers, two sided printing and various chase cards along with the other costs I mentioned above. I'm sure there are other additional higher costs in dealing with the stores that stock the cards, middlemen, gas prices and so on. Just upping it to .21 cents for simple inflation is not accurate at all.

[Porkie]

I was simply ruminating on the cost for kids to buy per pack compared to way back when. Wasn't seriously thinking they'd be anywhere near that cheap. I was also blending ANS with OLDS and think I still have ANS7 on the brain, where they seemed a little steep after the fact.

I also completely forgot OLDS cannot be bought on a per pack basis. Seems like a shame in one sense as I think collecting just the base set would make much more sense if buying them a pack at a time. If that were the case, would they be around $1/pack or so? Just curious.

[bandaches]

Check out this auction from the sketch card queen:

http://cgi.ebay.com/WACKY-PACKAGES-OLD-SCHOOL-2-COMPLETE-STARTER-COLLECTION-/160585316043?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item2563a176cb

Yep, $5.99 for a base set, checklist set, 5x7 set, concept card set, promos -- the whole shebang except for the sketches!

I have read this whole thread and I still don't understand your point.  What is the "value" of baseball cards today after they are purchased from the store and how do they hold up when compared to the price paid?  Without correlating to other collector cards and showing a major distinction, it is hard to say you are doing an analysis.  It comes off to me that you are bashing Old school.  Even though buried in here somewhere you make a quick reference to your "liking" this set, it is overwhelmed by your headlined subject which is hardly an endorsement of the set.

[Paul_Maul]

I have read this whole thread and I still don't understand your point.  What is the "value" of baseball cards today after they are purchased from the store and how do they hold up when compared to the price paid?  Without correlating to other collector cards and showing a major distinction, it is hard to say you are doing an analysis.  It comes off to me that you are bashing Old school.  Even though buried in here somewhere you make a quick reference to your "liking" this set, it is overwhelmed by your headlined subject which is hardly an endorsement of the set.

I think I made my point pretty clearly above. I'm concerned that people buying hundreds of boxes and blowing out everything but the sketch cards at pennies on the dollar is unhealthy for the series' future for the reasons I described in some detail. Not sure why it comes across as bashing Old School, unless that's what you're attempting to read into it.

[JasonLiebig]

I think I made my point pretty clearly above. I'm concerned that people buying hundreds of boxes and blowing out everything but the sketch cards at pennies on the dollar is unhealthy for the series' future for the reasons I described in some detail. Not sure why it comes across as bashing Old School, unless that's what you're attempting to read into it.

I suppose you could read some subtext into the description of your concerns.  But, I don't think that's the case.

It's a logical concern that you have, but only if a number of things are also true, and I don't think those other things are.   All that we know now, is that due to some bulk buyers, a percentage of base sticker sets are dumped on the market soon after series release.   We imagine a scenario where that leads to a hit in future series box sales, due to predicting that availability of low-cost base sets.   So far, it does not appear that has happened.  Is there any slowdown is box sales?  

My feeling is that keeping production numbers consistent, and truly limited, will prevent the bulk buyers from killing the collectibility.  Though, I was concerned when I learned numbers were upped to 5,000 boxes for series 2.    If Topps can hold the line at 5,000 box print runs, things should not get out of hand.  

Unless we suppose that there simply aren't enough collectors interested in Wacky Packages to collect 10,000 Old School base sticker sets.  If it turns out that there aren't, then the production numbers have been artificially increased due to sketch buyers, and that is a problem.   Is that what anyone really thinks?  

[bandaches]

I think I made my point pretty clearly above. I'm concerned that people buying hundreds of boxes and blowing out everything but the sketch cards at pennies on the dollar is unhealthy for the series' future for the reasons I described in some detail. Not sure why it comes across as bashing Old School, unless that's what you're attempting to read into it.

Well, if you reread the first round of responses, many people didn't understand your point so clearly your point isn't all that clear.  Even after your attempts to clarify, I hardly see lots of nods of understanding so hopefully you can accept as your starting point that your point isn't all that clear afterall.

You have used some very specific negative connotation words which one can use to figure out the point of a person when it isn't clear: "swill", "Scrap heap" and some odd reference to thinking Dave should be offended.

If there are more sets than collectors, then the price of a set will drop. This is not driven by sketch cards.  If it cost people more to make sets, they of course would seek more in return but again, simple law of supply and demand will control the price and it will drop to below cost if supply exceeds demand, it really is that simple. 

You almost seem to insist that if these sets can be hoarded as "investments", it hurts future demand.

I would think Dave Gross should be thrilled that so many collectors want the set, your scrap heap statement almost suggested people weren't even keeping their own set and throwing it all away ONLY to get sketches and that just simply isn't true.

[BumChex]

One thing I want to mention- I hate putting sets together that is why I felt selling boxes would be easier.

[Paul_Maul]

You have used some very specific negative connotation words which one can use to figure out the point of a person when it isn't clear: "swill", "Scrap heap" and some odd reference to thinking Dave should be offended.

If you re-read, you'll see that all of those terms were used to describe people's treatment of the non-sketch material. They were in no way used to demean the quality of those items, nor do I have an intent to do so. If I haven't said it enthusiastically enough for you, I have enjoyed the Old School base sets far more than any of the ANS sets. I like 'em!

If there are more sets than collectors, then the price of a set will drop. This is not driven by sketch cards.

How is it not driven by sketch cards? The sketch cards are the reason that there are more sets than collectors. 

You almost seem to insist that if these sets can be hoarded as "investments", it hurts future demand.

No, I suggested the possibility that master sets being blown out for $6 could diminish the perception of the franchise's value going forward and negatively impact sales. Jason thinks my concerns are unwarranted, maybe he's right. I don't have a crystal ball.

...your scrap heap statement almost suggested people weren't even keeping their own set and throwing it all away ONLY to get sketches and that just simply isn't true.

I certainly am not suggesting that.

[JasonLiebig]

Jason thinks my concerns are unwarranted, maybe he's right. I don't have a crystal ball.

Actually, I think your concerns could be warranted, but only if certain other things are true; if the Wacky Packages hobby is smaller than what I've assumed it to be, for one.  

Let me put this another way: Do we think there are there 10,000 at-least-casual Wacky Package collectors?  If there are, that's enough to absorb the inexpensive base sets created through a 5,000 box run, and then some, without any glut being created.    But, if the hobby is significantly smaller than that - PaulMaul's hypothetical scenario takes on more concern, because then you're creating surplus base sets, purely in service of the sketches.  

The sketch craze, and a few bulk buyers dumping their non-sketch base sets, does not determine the size of the hobby marketplace, though.  

[Paul_Maul]

Let me put this another way: Do we think there are there 10,000 at-least-casual Wacky Package collectors?  If there are, that's enough to absorb the inexpensive base sets created through a 5,000 box run, and then some, without any glut being created.    But, if the hobby is significantly smaller than that - PaulMaul's hypothetical scenario takes on more concern, because then you're creating surplus base sets, purely in service of the sketches.  

The sketch craze, and a few bulk buyers dumping their non-sketch base sets, does not determine the size of the hobby marketplace, though.  

It doesn't seem this simple to me.

Let's say, under scenario #1, that the 5000 OLDS2 boxes sell out in such a way that all 10,000 sets are obtained by collectors who have either bought boxes at retail, or bought sets on the secondary market for an equivalent price. This is roughly what would happen if there were no sketches and sufficient demand to absorb the boxes at that price point.

In scenario #2, let's say 2500 of the boxes are bought by sketch hounds. If the demand were unchanged from scenario #1, one would expect all the extra base material put on ebay by the sketch hounds would sell for roughly the same price as in scenario 1, to those who couldn't get the boxes they wanted.

If the stuff on ebay is selling at a significantly lower price point, it would seem to indicate that there's enough demand for the base sets at SOME price point, but not at the price point of scenario 1. My concerns kick in in this case even if there is no "glut", because those buyers are only out there at siginificantly reduced prices.  Thus if the sketch hounds step back, it could significantly affect sales.

Is that not a reasonable analysis?

[JasonLiebig]

It doesn't seem this simple to me.

Let's say, under scenario #1, that the 5000 OLDS2 boxes sell out in such a way that all 10,000 sets are obtained by collectors who have either bought boxes at retail, or bought sets on the secondary market for an equivalent price. This is roughly what would happen if there were no sketches and sufficient demand to absorb the boxes at that price point.

In scenario #2, let's say 2500 of the boxes are bought by sketch hounds. If the demand were unchanged from scenario #1, one would expect all the extra base material put on ebay by the sketch hounds would sell for roughly the same price as in scenario 1, to those who couldn't get the boxes they wanted.

If the stuff on ebay is selling at a significantly lower price point, it would seem to indicate that there's enough demand for the base sets at SOME price point, but not at the price point of scenario 1. My concerns kick in in this case even if there is no "glut", because those buyers are only out there at siginificantly reduced prices.  Thus if the sketch hounds step back, it could significantly affect sales.

Is that not a reasonable analysis?

Only if you assume that a $50 box price is enough of a barrier to stop those folks who bought series one and two.  Or if a reduced secondary price of say, $20 for a base set, as opposed to $5, is enough to stop folks from collecting new Wackys.  Because that's the worst-case-scenario, right?   Is $20 or $25 too high for a "casual" Wacky Packages collector?

[Dr Popper]

Actually, I think your concerns could be warranted, but only if certain other things are true; if the Wacky Packages hobby is smaller than what I've assumed it to be, for one.  

Let me put this another way: Do we think there are there 10,000 at-least-casual Wacky Package collectors?  If there are, that's enough to absorb the inexpensive base sets created through a 5,000 box run, and then some, without any glut being created.    But, if the hobby is significantly smaller than that - PaulMaul's hypothetical scenario takes on more concern, because then you're creating surplus base sets, purely in service of the sketches.  

The sketch craze, and a few bulk buyers dumping their non-sketch base sets, does not determine the size of the hobby marketplace, though.  

I have no evidence to back it up, but I don't think there are 10,000 casual Wacky collectors.  Maybe 1,000 is more realistic.  I think there are a lot of non-sport collectors who collect base sets from several various card series, so they would pick up a Wacky base set just to have but don't necessarily care about the other items.  Maybe I'm wrong though.  I remember Greg has told me that the extent of collectors who remain "under the radar" is bigger than most of us would imagine.  There are a lot of folks who don't like the people part of the hobby and forums or whatever, so we don't here about them.  I still don't think we are talking 10,000 though.



 

[JasonLiebig]

I have no evidence to back it up, but I don't think there are 10,000 casual Wacky collectors.  Maybe 1,000 is more realistic.  I think there are a lot of non-sport collectors who collect base sets from several various card series, so they would pick up a Wacky base set just to have but don't necessarily care about the other items.  Maybe I'm wrong though.  I remember Greg has told me that the extent of collectors who remain "under the radar" is bigger than most of us would imagine.  There are a lot of folks who don't like the people part of the hobby and forums or whatever, so we don't here about them.  I still don't think we are talking 10,000 though.

 

I know you're making an educated guess, but I think our answer is as simple as this:  IF there aren't 10,000 Wacky Pacakges collectors, (of whatever stripes), then 5,000 boxes of of a collector-targeted series is probably too many. 

But that's only if you're estimate is correct.   If so, it gives some credence to PaulMaul's concern (though perhaps in a different way than he would describe it) that the sell-through on a 5,000 box print run is only possible due to people buying in multiple, due to the inserts, creating a glut of sorts, with the base set. 

I suppose there are no clear answers, but I've always enjoyed looking at the things that create perceived value in a hobby.  It can be interesting, even if no clear conclusions can be come to. 

[FourRoses]

Something that struck me recently too is the price of a single pack of OLDS. At $1.99 these are significantly higher than the vintage series in its heyday, even allowing for inflation and a third sticker. To give an idea, a pack from 1973 with two stickers, a checklist, and a piece of gum was 5 cents. In 2010 that same 5 cents would be 21 cents with inflation. How did it get to $1.99 ?!?

You need to look at more then just inflation though. The materials to make the cards are different. The development, production costs, etc.., all come into play.

[bigtomi]

... then 5,000 boxes of a collector-targeted series is probably too many. 

It's barely enough for just Brad.


LOL, sorry BumChex, couldn't resist.

[bandaches]

If you re-read, you'll see that all of those terms were used to describe people's treatment of the non-sketch material. They were in no way used to demean the quality of those items, nor do I have an intent to do so. If I haven't said it enthusiastically enough for you, I have enjoyed the Old School base sets far more than any of the ANS sets. I like 'em!

How is it not driven by sketch cards? The sketch cards are the reason that there are more sets than collectors. 

No, I suggested the possibility that master sets being blown out for $6 could diminish the perception of the franchise's value going forward and negatively impact sales. Jason thinks my concerns are unwarranted, maybe he's right. I don't have a crystal ball.

I certainly am not suggesting that.

No, the reason there are more sets than collectors is because there were more sets printed.  Even without sketches, getting 2 sets per box means very quickly there will be more sets than collectors and that equates to prices dropping.  This happened with all of the ANS sets with no sketches.....same law of supply and demand formula, same results.

[bandaches]

It doesn't seem this simple to me.

Let's say, under scenario #1, that the 5000 OLDS2 boxes sell out in such a way that all 10,000 sets are obtained by collectors who have either bought boxes at retail, or bought sets on the secondary market for an equivalent price. This is roughly what would happen if there were no sketches and sufficient demand to absorb the boxes at that price point.

In scenario #2, let's say 2500 of the boxes are bought by sketch hounds. If the demand were unchanged from scenario #1, one would expect all the extra base material put on ebay by the sketch hounds would sell for roughly the same price as in scenario 1, to those who couldn't get the boxes they wanted.

If the stuff on ebay is selling at a significantly lower price point, it would seem to indicate that there's enough demand for the base sets at SOME price point, but not at the price point of scenario 1. My concerns kick in in this case even if there is no "glut", because those buyers are only out there at siginificantly reduced prices.  Thus if the sketch hounds step back, it could significantly affect sales.

Is that not a reasonable analysis?

I think your theory that there are buyers that exist "only at significantly reduced prices" is flawed.  Even you would have purchased a box if that was the only way to get a set but you were smart enough to buy from the surplus for less.  You were not a buyer ONLY because of the reduced prices, you would have paid more if you needed to.  Buyers taking advantage of lower prices doesn't mean they are ONLY buyers if the price is low.  One last time, simple law of supply and demand regardless of scenarios, more sets than collectors equals falling prices.  Supply being dumped in a small time frame only means the price gets to that settling point faster but does't change the end result.  If for some reason there ended up NOT being enough sets to go around, then buyers of sets during the lower priced surplus time have something that would go UP in value....

[bandaches]

I have no evidence to back it up, but I don't think there are 10,000 casual Wacky collectors.  Maybe 1,000 is more realistic.  I think there are a lot of non-sport collectors who collect base sets from several various card series, so they would pick up a Wacky base set just to have but don't necessarily care about the other items.  Maybe I'm wrong though.  I remember Greg has told me that the extent of collectors who remain "under the radar" is bigger than most of us would imagine.  There are a lot of folks who don't like the people part of the hobby and forums or whatever, so we don't here about them.  I still don't think we are talking 10,000 though.

greg has made many claims that haven't panned out.  He felt that without him, later ANS sets, post cards, Olds would all fail as only he had access to this mysterious secret navy seal hoard of collectors.  Dillusions of grandeur often have no bounds.  Yet here we are today, mid way through the 2nd straight year of the hobby being possibly in better shape than in any recent years with Olds and post card sets selling out with ease, future ANS sets planned, a overwhelming positive vibe in the hobby and no end in sight.  It is tough to measure how many kids are collecting ANS wackys.  Just one kid per town puts us well over 10,000 "casual" collectors, no?

[Dr Popper]

But that's only if you're estimate is correct.   If so, it gives some credence to PaulMaul's concern (though perhaps in a different way than he would describe it) that the sell-through on a 5,000 box print run is only possible due to people buying in multiple, due to the inserts, creating a glut of sorts, with the base set. 

I think multiple purchases are a big part of the sales for series like Old School.  I think if everyone was limited to only 1 box and that was all they wanted or needed, the series wouldn't sell out, and 5,000 boxes would be too much.

[BumChex]

It's barely enough for just Brad.


LOL, sorry BumChex, couldn't resist.

No offense taken. I'm only sitting on about 60 boxes now and have gone through over 300.
Having too much fun!

[Tic_Toc]

It doesn't seem this simple to me.

Let's say, under scenario #1, that the 5000 OLDS2 boxes sell out in such a way that all 10,000 sets are obtained by collectors who have either bought boxes at retail, or bought sets on the secondary market for an equivalent price. This is roughly what would happen if there were no sketches and sufficient demand to absorb the boxes at that price point.

In scenario #2, let's say 2500 of the boxes are bought by sketch hounds. If the demand were unchanged from scenario #1, one would expect all the extra base material put on ebay by the sketch hounds would sell for roughly the same price as in scenario 1, to those who couldn't get the boxes they wanted.

If the stuff on ebay is selling at a significantly lower price point, it would seem to indicate that there's enough demand for the base sets at SOME price point, but not at the price point of scenario 1. My concerns kick in in this case even if there is no "glut", because those buyers are only out there at siginificantly reduced prices.  Thus if the sketch hounds step back, it could significantly affect sales.

Is that not a reasonable analysis?

Sounds reasonable to me.  From what I've seen on here and can infer from ebay, I would assume that a large percentage of the boxes were bought by collectors looking to build/sell/trade sketch cards.  In that scenario, you'll end up with a lot of peole who will take pennies on the dollar just to off-load the extra base sets/packs/boxes that they ended up with.  And since there's little reason to believe any of these newer sets have any long-term monetary value, better to get what you can now while there's still some interest in the set.  

Whether or not that hurts the hobby/values long term is hard to say.  I personally don't see the collector base growing much, particularly for stuff that's not available in stores.  So the values would probably drop anyway; the sketch-leftovers dumping may accelerate the process though.

[Plan 9]

With so many extra Old School stickers floating around I hope most of us here are peeling and sticking them! That's why they have glue, remember? Using the stickers helps eat into the supply and makes the remaining supply more special. So for those who want Old School stickers to hold some sort of value, and for those who feel there are too damn many out there, keep stickin' em!

[JasonLiebig]

Whether or not that hurts the hobby/values long term is hard to say.  I personally don't see the collector base growing much, particularly for stuff that's not available in stores.  So the values would probably drop anyway; the sketch-leftovers dumping may accelerate the process though.

I think long-term value of Old School base sets depends largely on how long the Old School series continues.  If it does continue, and production numbers remain as they are, and the series doesn't change up the base series in some dramatic way, the "value" as part of the larger whole will only increase - with regard to the 33-sticker base set.  Perhaps not dramatically, but I don't think the base sets will remain as cheaply had as they are during the initial period of their availability.   At least that's my guess.   

[bandaches]

I think long-term value of Old School base sets depends largely on how long the Old School series continues.  If it does continue, and production numbers remain as they are, and the series doesn't change up the base series in some dramatic way, the "value" as part of the larger whole will only increase - with regard to the 33-sticker base set.  Perhaps not dramatically, but I don't think the base sets will remain as cheaply had as they are during the initial period of their availability.   At least that's my guess.   

Why are you insisting on ignoring the most basic rule in pricing, law of supply and demand?  There is little "guessing" required.  The value of the sets will not increase just because of future production numbers, changing up and such.....if the series continues and as it continues more and more NEW BUYERS are lured into the picture, some % of them will want to catch up and hence will increase the total demand on the past sets.  If that demand increased demand on a fixed or falling supply will result in price recovery.  I don't believe there is any other magic involved than that.

[BumChex]

Why are you insisting on ignoring the most basic rule in pricing, law of supply and demand?  There is little "guessing" required.  The value of the sets will not increase just because of future production numbers, changing up and such.....if the series continues and as it continues more and more NEW BUYERS are lured into the picture, some % of them will want to catch up and hence will increase the total demand on the past sets.  If that demand increased demand on a fixed or falling supply will result in price recovery.  I don't believe there is any other magic involved than that.

Your exactly right. New collectors come into the mix and then want to get sets from all the ANS series along with inserts. The demand starts to creep up. That is why I build a number of sets and insert sets to keep in stock. People will buy from me through ebay or the forum and then ask if I have any other of the ANS stuff. You can give them a fair price and not have to low ball to move the stuff. Some people just like to buy a lot to have on hand.
I'm not a big fan of sorting cards so I decided to deplete my inventory of cards by selling the boxes with unopened packs. You can most likely build 2 sets per box and I don't have to do all the sorting and storing of sets.

[lucidjc]

I think the one thing we are forgeting, at least with OS 2, is the number of MINT sets. As Brad said in the begining of the run how hard it is to put together a truly mint set. I have 8 KA-BOO's all with the same bend in the top left corner...WTF!

[Porkie]

I think the one thing we are forgeting, at least with OS 2, is the number of MINT sets. As Brad said in the begining of the run how hard it is to put together a truly mint set. I have 8 KA-BOO's all with the same bend in the top left corner...WTF!

I did the same thing with ANS 1-6 when I "caught up" as a collector a year or two ago. I was able to pick up unopened packs/boxes and then built the best sets I could by comparing cards one by one. It was very labor intensive, but I have some really nice sets. Did the same for the 85, 91, OPC 91, and album sets. It's amazing when you do this how many cards are "slightly off" -- miscut, etc. They do look really nice!

[Bigmuc13]

I think your theory that there are buyers that exist "only at significantly reduced prices" is flawed.  Even you would have purchased a box if that was the only way to get a set but you were smart enough to buy from the surplus for less.  You were not a buyer ONLY because of the reduced prices, you would have paid more if you needed to.  Buyers taking advantage of lower prices doesn't mean they are ONLY buyers if the price is low.  One last time, simple law of supply and demand regardless of scenarios, more sets than collectors equals falling prices.  Supply being dumped in a small time frame only means the price gets to that settling point faster but does't change the end result.  If for some reason there ended up NOT being enough sets to go around, then buyers of sets during the lower priced surplus time have something that would go UP in value....

There are some of us out there that fit that Dave's bill.  I haven't purchased much of anything new (2004 or later).  A little here and there, and almost nothing Falshback.  But, I do plan on ording one of the cheap master sets of OLDS2 because I like many of them.  Of course, I haven't done it yet.  With that said, I probably wouldn't fork over the money to buy a box for the set.  So the cheap price of the sets from the box buyers got me in.

[Bigmuc13]

Why are you insisting on ignoring the most basic rule in pricing, law of supply and demand?  There is little "guessing" required.  The value of the sets will not increase just because of future production numbers, changing up and such.....if the series continues and as it continues more and more NEW BUYERS are lured into the picture, some % of them will want to catch up and hence will increase the total demand on the past sets.  If that demand increased demand on a fixed or falling supply will result in price recovery.  I don't believe there is any other magic involved than that.

I agree with the supply and demand, but I don't see any increase happening any time soon.  Take ANS series 1 from 2004.  It is now 2011.  There have been 6 new series released since then, along with 2 flashback and 2 old school along with losts of other shirts, towels, erasers, etc. to drum up interest from folks who did not collect the ANS1.  That set has not inclreased in value, and neither have the unopened boxes.  I see the full boxes sell for $20 to $25 on ebay, and many times they go unsold.  Based on that, either demand has not gome up, or there is still such a great supply out there that it still has not surpassed demand.  Now, that line may be crossed at some point, but I bet that line for ANS2 will never be crossed.  They made a ton of that stuff.  Also, look at the common series for the original series stuff.  Series 5 stickers haven't been produced in almost 40 years, and complete sets still sell for $30 to $35.  They were produced at such high levels that they still have yet to reach a shortage in supply, even with all the people from back in the day getting hooked by hearing about Wacly's from the new stuff.

[Duznt]

I was thinking the same thing.

Wait a second... hold the phone! Hold the phone! How about, since it's the 3rd series, a faux error along the lines of Spit & Spill? But instead of using the actual product name on the box top, they could use the original 3rd series title as the error name. So there would be a Spic & Span parody, let's call it "Speck & Spam", with "Spit & Spill" on the top of the box for some small percentage of the stickers. Call Starkist!*

I love this idea!
Plus for OldS4, they could go one step further - just like OS4, do a Bum Chex/Choke Wagon thing, and print two different sheets - the second one having 2 different "replacement" stickers, along with 2 different checklists/puzzles to match. That sure would mix up the box contents. Totally "old school" too.   Unfortunately the extra cost in printing 2 different sticker sheets & checklists would probably kill this idea.

[bandaches]

I agree with the supply and demand, but I don't see any increase happening any time soon.  Take ANS series 1 from 2004.  It is now 2011.  There have been 6 new series released since then, along with 2 flashback and 2 old school along with losts of other shirts, towels, erasers, etc. to drum up interest from folks who did not collect the ANS1.  That set has not inclreased in value, and neither have the unopened boxes.  I see the full boxes sell for $20 to $25 on ebay, and many times they go unsold.  Based on that, either demand has not gome up, or there is still such a great supply out there that it still has not surpassed demand.  Now, that line may be crossed at some point, but I bet that line for ANS2 will never be crossed.  They made a ton of that stuff.  Also, look at the common series for the original series stuff.  Series 5 stickers haven't been produced in almost 40 years, and complete sets still sell for $30 to $35.  They were produced at such high levels that they still have yet to reach a shortage in supply, even with all the people from back in the day getting hooked by hearing about Wacly's from the new stuff.

OLDS supply and ANS supply have nothing to do with each other.  I dont see ANS supply ever being exhausted.  OLDS was a much smaller fixed supply.  It has a much better chance of being exhausted.  Of course it may never happen but wiping out a few thousand boxes sure is easier than 10's of thousands or more for ANS.

[DrSushi]

I love this idea!
Plus for OldS4, they could go one step further - just like OS4, do a Bum Chex/Choke Wagon thing, and print two different sheets - the second one having 2 different "replacement" stickers, along with 2 different checklists/puzzles to match. That sure would mix up the box contents. Totally "old school" too.   Unfortunately the extra cost in printing 2 different sticker sheets & checklists would probably kill this idea.

Good point about the cost. Perhaps they could have both "Spic and Span" variations printed on every sheet and available in equal numbers. Not quite the same thing, but still kinda fun.

Or if they printed both variations equally, they could just not distribute half (or whatever) of each variation. This wouldn't add any cost; but would make for one less completely unique title in the series, which may not be desirable.